Who Is the Heisman Trophy Favorite After Week 12? Fernando Mendoza Leads the Race
The 2023 college football season has delivered no shortage of drama, and as we head into the final stretch, the Heisman Trophy race is heating up. After Week 12, one name stands above the rest: Fernando Mendoza, the electrifying quarterback from the University of Miami. With jaw-dropping performances, clutch plays, and a knack for leading his team to victory, Mendoza has emerged as the frontruer in what has been one of the most competitive Heisman races in recent memory.
But how did we get here? Who else is still in contention? And what does history tell us about late-season Heisman shifts? Whether you’re a die-hard college football fan or just tuning in for the playoff push, this breakdown will give you everything you need to know about the 2023 Heisman landscape—why Mendoza is leading, who could still challenge him, and what to watch in the final weeks.
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What Is the Heisman Trophy, and Why Does It Matter?
The Heisman Trophy is college football’s most prestigious individual award, given aually to the “most outstanding player” iCAA Division I FBS. Since its inception in 1935, the Heisman has become more than just a trophy—it’s a career-defining honor that can propel players into NFL stardom and cement their legacy in college football lore.
Wiers are selected by a panel of 928 voters, including sports journalists, former Heisman wiers, and fans (via a single collective vote). While the award doesn’t guarantee NFL success (see: Tim Tebow or Johy Manziel), it often highlights players who dominated the college game in ways that transcended statistics.
Key Heisman Criteria
- Individual Performance: Eye-popping stats, record-breaking games, and consistency.
- Team Success: Contenders often play for top-ranked teams or conference champions.
- Clutch Moments: Game-wiing drives, comeback victories, and “Heisman moments” (think Desmond Howard’s pose or Reggie Bush’s jumps).
- Narrative: Overcoming adversity, historic achievements, or carrying a team.
This year, Mendoza checks nearly every box—and then some.
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Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman Resume: Why He’s the Favorite
If the Heisman were awarded today, Fernando Mendoza would likely be holding the bronze statue. The redshirt junior has been the most dominant and consistent player in college football in 2023, combining elite production with a flair for the dramatic. Here’s why he’s leading the race after Week 12:
1. Video Game Numbers
Mendoza’s stats read like something out of NCAA Football 14:
- 3,428 passing yards (2nd in FBS)
- 38 total touchdowns (32 passing, 6 rushing)
- 72% completion rate (1st among Power 5 QBs with 300+ attempts)
- 200+ passer rating in 6 games this season
- Zero interceptions in his last 5 games
For context, only two QBs in the last decade (Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray) have won the Heisman with a passer rating above 200. Mendoza is on pace to join them.
2. Carrying Miami to Contention
The Hurricanes entered 2023 unranked and picked to finish 4th in the ACC Coastal. Thanks to Mendoza’s heroics, they’re now 10-1, ranked No. 5 in the CFP standings, and in the hunt for their first College Football Playoff berth. His leadership has been the difference in multiple one-score games, including:
- Game-wiing TD drive vs. Florida State (Week 4)
- 400+ total yards and 4 TDs in a 31-27 upset over Clemson (Week 9)
- Last-minute touchdown pass to beat Virginia Tech 28-27 (Week 11)
Without Mendoza, Miami is likely a 7-4 team. With him? They’re a playoff dark horse.
3. The “It” Factor
Heisman voters love a story, and Mendoza’s is compelling. A three-star recruit who waited his turn behind two NFL draft picks, he’s now rewriting Miami’s record books. His dual-threat ability (400+ rushing yards, 6 TDs) and ice-cold clutch gene make him must-watch TV. Even opponents can’t help but praise him:
“That dude’s a cheat code. He’s like if Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen had a baby and raised him in Miami.” — Anonymous ACC defensive coordinator
4. The Eye Test
Numbers don’t lie, but neither does the tape. Mendoza’s arm talent (60+ yard dimes), escapability (Houdini-like pocket presence), and football IQ (audibles, pre-snap reads) jump off the screen. His Week 12 performance against Pitt—378 total yards, 5 TDs, and a 92-yard game-sealing drive—was a Heisman statement.
Related: Fernando Mendoza’s Best Plays of 2023 (Video Breakdown)
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Heisman Contenders Still in the Hunt
While Mendoza is the clear favorite, the Heisman race is far from over. History shows that late-season performances (see: Joe Burrow in 2019) and conference championships can swing votes. Here are the players who could still challenge Mendoza:
1. Jayden Daniels (LSU) – The Dual-Threat Dynamo
Why he’s in the mix: Daniels leads the FBS in total offense (4,100+ yards) and has accounted for 45 TDs (30 passing, 15 rushing). His weekly highlight-reel plays (like his 5-TD performance vs. Ole Miss) keep him in the conversation.
Why he’s behind: LSU’s two losses (vs. Florida State, Alabama) hurt his narrative. He’ll need a monster SEC Championship game to leapfrog Mendoza.
2. Drake Maye (North Carolina) – The Sophomore Sensation
Why he’s in the mix: Maye was the preseason favorite and has lived up to the hype, throwing for 3,600+ yards and 30 TDs. His NFL-level arm talent and late-game heroics (see: game-wiing drive vs. Duke) keep him relevant.
Why he’s behind: UNC’s defensive struggles (allowing 30+ PPG) and lack of signature wins (no top-10 victories) have dimmed his shine.
3. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) – The Non-QB Wildcard
Why he’s in the mix: The best wide receiver in college football (1,200+ yards, 14 TDs) is putting up Julio Jones-esque numbers. If Ohio State wins out, his dominant performances (like his 197-yard, 3-TD game vs. Michigan State) could earn him votes.
Why he’s behind: Non-QBs face an uphill battle (only 3 WRs have won the Heisman). He’d need a historical Big Ten Championship to overcome the QB bias.
4. Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) – The Comeback Kid
Why he’s in the mix: Penix leads the nation in passing yards (4,000+) and has Washington undefeated and ranked No. 4. His resilience (multiple ACL tears) and big-game performances (400+ yards vs. Oregon) make him a dark horse.
Why he’s behind: His 9 interceptions and late-game struggles (see: near-loss to Arizona State) give voters pause.
See also: Heisman Trophy Voting Trends: How Late-Season Games Impact the Race
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How the Heisman Race Could Shift in the Final Weeks
The Heisman isn’t awarded iovember—it’s a December decision. With Rivalry Week, conference championships, and the CFP semifinal looming, here’s what could change the race:
1. The “Heisman Moment” Factor
Voters remember signature plays in big games. If Mendoza delivers another game-wiing drive (especially vs. Florida State in the ACC Championship), he’ll lock up the award. But if Daniels or Maye steal the show in their title games, the race could flip.
2. Team Success vs. Individual Brilliance
If Miami loses to FSU but Mendoza throws for 400+ yards, does he still win? Probably. But if LSU or UNC wins their conference and their QB puts up video-game numbers, voters might reconsider.
3. The “Voter Fatigue” Wildcard
Mendoza has been the frontruer for weeks. If another player (like Harrison Jr.) has a monster final two games, voters might gravitate toward the “fresh” candidate.
4. The CFP Semifinal Curveball
If Mendoza leads Miami to the College Football Playoff, he’ll likely win the Heisman before the semifinal. But if he struggles in a loss, late votes could shift (see: Tua Tagovailoa in 2018).
Expert Tip: Heisman voting closes December 4, before the CFP semifinal. Conference championship performances will be the last chance for contenders to make their case.
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Heisman Trophy FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Q: Has a Miami QB ever won the Heisman?
A: Yes! Gino Torretta (1992) and Viy Testaverde (1986) both won it. Mendoza would be the third.
Q: Can a player win the Heisman without wiing their conference?
A: Absolutely. Lamar Jackson (2016) and Kyler Murray (2018) both won without conference titles.
Q: How much do Heisman wiers get paid?
A: The Heisman itself is unpaid, but wiers often see NIL deals skyrocket (e.g., Caleb Williams’ $10M+ valuation).
Q: Who’s the youngest Heisman wier?
A: Johy Manziel (2012) won as a redshirt freshman at age 20.
Q: Has a defensive player ever won?
A: Only once—Charles Woodson (1997), a cornerback for Michigan.
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How to Watch the Heisman Race Unfold
Want to follow the final weeks of the Heisman drama? Here’s your guide:
📅 Key Games to Watch
- Week 13 (Rivalry Week):
- Miami vs. Boston College (Mendoza’s last regular-season game)
- North Carolina vs. NC State (Maye’s Heisman audition)
- Ohio State vs. Michigan (Harrison Jr. vs. the No. 1 defense)
- Week 14 (Conference Championships):
- ACC Championship: Miami vs. Florida State (Mendoza vs. Jordan Travis)
- SEC Championship: LSU vs. Georgia (Daniels’ last shot)
- Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs. Michigan (Harrison Jr.’s showcase)
📊 Heisman Tracking Tools
- ESPN Heisman Watch (Weekly updates)
- Straw Poll Heisman Odds (Real-time betting lines)
- NCAA Stats Leaderboard (Live player rankings)
🏆 Heisman Ceremony Details
The 2023 Heisman Trophy will be awarded on December 9, 2023, iew York City. The ceremony airs live on ESPN at 8 PM ET.
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Final Verdict: Mendoza’s Heisman to Lose
After Week 12, Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman favorite—and it’s not particularly close. His combination of elite stats, team success, and clutch performances gives him a commanding lead. However, college football is unpredictable, and a poor showing in the ACC Championship or a transcendent performance from Daniels or Maye could shake things up.
Here’s the most likely scenario:
- If Miami wins out: Mendoza wins in a landslide.
- If Miami loses but Mendoza plays well: He still wins, but the margiarrows.
- If Daniels or Maye lights up their championship game: The race gets interesting.
- If Harrison Jr. has a 200-yard, 3-TD game vs. Michigan: He could sneak into the top 3.
For now, though, the trophy is Mendoza’s to lose. His 2023 season has been one for the ages, and barring a collapse, he’ll join the pantheon of Heisman legends.
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Join the Conversation
Who do you think should win the Heisman? Is Mendoza the clear choice, or does another player deserve it more? Drop your take in the comments!
And if you’re as obsessed with the Heisman race as we are, don’t miss our weekly updates—we’ll be tracking every twist and turn until the wier is crowned.
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